Ensemble Routing for Prompt-Adaptive Cost-Aware LLM Inference

Saul Urso, Emanuele Carlini, Patrizio Dazzi, Matteo Mordacchini

Institute of Information Science and Technologies, CNR · Institute of Informatics and Telematics, CNR · University of Pisa

Published November 6, 2026 · on the feed November 12, 2026 · ▲ 14 · arXiv 2611.10193

Efficiency & inference No code arXiv ↗Hugging Face ↗

The abstract

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly support Web-based services that must balance response quality and inference cost across heterogeneous requests. Conventional routing selects one model per prompt, while fixed ensembles cannot adapt their composition and cost to individual requests. We introduce PISA, a prompt-adaptive, cost-aware single-model router, and PISA-E, its extension to ensemble routing. At the core of both methods, PISA combines soft cluster memberships with model-specific predictors to estimate individual model capabilities. Building on these estimates, PISA-E jointly selects ensemble composition and cardinality under an explicit cost--quality preference that can be adjusted at inference time without retraining. A tractable ensemble-success surrogate and efficient candidate selection enable this extension without ensemble-specific training. Across four LLM routing benchmarks under in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) conditions, PISA achieves the highest macro-average cost--performance hypervolume among the evaluated single-model routers in both settings. Meanwhile, PISA-E achieves the highest macro-average task performance among the evaluated ensemble approaches when prioritizing response quality, surpassing the strongest competitors by 2.09 and 2.87 percentage points under ID and OOD conditions, respectively. At selected lower-cost operating points, it also exceeds the strongest ensemble competitors' macro-average task performance while reducing average inference cost by approximately 36% and 25%, respectively. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of prompt-adaptive capability estimation for both single-model routing and selective ensembling.

The Brief

2:31

A short podcast summary of the paper. Written and voiced by AI.

Transcript

Ensemble Routing for Prompt-Adaptive Cost-Aware LLM Inference. By Saul Urso and three others, from the Institute of Information Science and Technologies of the Italian National Research Council, the Institute of Informatics and Telematics of the Italian National Research Council, and one other institution. Published on the sixth of November.

Large language models increasingly sit behind web services that receive very different requests, and every request has to be answered with some balance between response quality and inference cost. The two usual approaches each give something up. Conventional routing picks one model per prompt. Fixed ensembles combine several models, but they cannot adapt their composition, or their cost, to the individual request in front of them.

The authors introduce PISA, a prompt-adaptive, cost-aware router that chooses a single model, and PISA-E, its extension to routing over ensembles. Both rest on the same core: an estimate of how capable each individual model is. PISA builds that estimate by combining soft cluster memberships with predictors specific to each model. Everything else in the system is built on top of these capability estimates.

PISA-E uses the estimates to decide two things jointly: which models go into the ensemble, and how many of them. The decision is governed by an explicit preference between cost and quality, and that preference can be adjusted at inference time without retraining. Two pieces make this workable. A tractable surrogate stands in for ensemble success, and candidate selection is efficient. Together they let the extension run without any training specific to ensembles.

Evaluation spans four LLM routing benchmarks, each under in-distribution and out-of-distribution conditions. Among the single-model routers evaluated, PISA reaches the highest macro-average cost-performance hypervolume in both settings.

On the ensemble side, when response quality is the priority, PISA-E has the highest macro-average task performance of the ensemble approaches evaluated. It beats the strongest competitors by two point zero nine percentage points in distribution, and by two point eight seven points out of distribution. At selected lower-cost operating points it still exceeds the strongest ensemble competitors on macro-average task performance. There it cuts average inference cost by about thirty-six percent in distribution, and by about twenty-five percent out of distribution.

One estimate does two jobs here. The same prompt-adaptive reading of what each model can do is used to pick a single model, and to decide which models, and how many, to put into an ensemble. Because the cost and quality preference is set at inference time, the trade-off can be moved without retraining the router, and the authors read the results as support for prompt-adaptive capability estimation in both roles.

Paper Quest · 7 chapters · about 40 min

Play this paper

Learn it by doing: make the calls the authors made, guess the result before you see it, and defend it in a viva graded on your own words. Chapter 1 is right here.

Chapter 1 🧩 · The problem

Many models, many requests, one budget. How do you match them?

You run a web service backed by many language models. Requests vary wildly, and each must balance answer quality against inference cost.

The road ahead

  1. 1 · The problem ~6 min A service with many language models must answer very different requests, and each answer trades quality against what it costs to produce.
  2. 2 · What came before ~3 min
  3. 3 · The key idea ~9 min Estimate how capable each model is on this prompt, then pick which models and how many to call, under a cost preference you can change.
  4. 4 · Choose your own research ~3 min
  5. 5 · Build the method ~8 min Soft cluster memberships feed per-model predictors; their estimates score growing groups of models, and the group best under the cost preference is called.
  6. 6 · The experiment ~6 min You’ll guess: At a selected lower-cost setting in distribution, PISA-E still beat the strongest ensemble competitors. Roughly how much did it cut average inference cost?
  7. 7 · The viva ~5 min Three questions from the examiners, answered in your own words. Win it for the paper’s trophy.
Join free to play the whole quest ›

Free, with Google or an email address. Your stars and progress are kept.

KipQuest: the day’s AI research, as podcasts and quests. All papers Android app Privacy Contact Episodes are written and voiced by AI from each paper. Summaries can contain mistakes: the paper is the source.