SeLMRoute: Probabilistic Semantic Evidence for Large Language Model Routing
Vasilis Perifanis, Nikolaos Pavlidis, Symeon Symeonidis
Indigma Innovations · Democritus University of Thrace · Athena Research Center
Published September 28, 2026 · on the feed October 1, 2026 · ▲ 10 · arXiv 2609.34736
The abstract
Large language model (LLM) routing aims to select the most suitable model for each incoming query. Most existing routers learn this decision directly from query embeddings, model representations, preference data, or clusters of similar examples. Such approaches can be effective, yet the representation used for routing rarely states what a query actually requires. We introduce SeLMRoute, a routing framework that separates the extraction of candidate-independent semantic evidence from the learning of candidate performance and the application of deployment objectives. A decision model first evaluates a set of interpretable questions about the query, such as its reasoning requirements and use of external knowledge, with each judgment retained as a probability distribution. The resulting probabilistic semantic state is used by a lightweight supervised router to estimate candidate model performance. Routing objectives are applied after performance estimation, which allows the same semantic state to support performance-oriented and cost-aware decisions. On the LLMRouterBench (15 datasets, 20 candidate models, 11,481 queries), SeLMRoute achieves an average accuracy of 72.08% pm 0.45, while grouped five-fold out-of-fold evaluation reaches 72.64%, compared with 69.23% for the strongest fixed candidate. The representation achieves the highest mean performance among the evaluated semantic, dense, lexical, and domain-level representations. In a separate 13-model performance-cost setting, SeLMRoute improves performance in all five grouped splits, with a mean PerfGain of 2.66%. Our code is available at https://github.com/Indigma-Innovations/SeLMRoute.
The Brief
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Transcript
SeLMRoute. Probabilistic Semantic Evidence for Large Language Model Routing. By Vasilis Perifanis and two others, from Indigma Innovations, the Democritus University of Thrace, and one other institution. Published on the twenty-eighth of September. Its code repository is worked out: about fifty-five source files, with a readme and a licence.
A router for large language models has one job: look at an incoming query and pick the model best suited to answer it. Most existing routers learn that choice directly from something like query embeddings, model representations, preference data, or clusters of similar examples. Those approaches can work. The trouble the authors point to is that the representation driving the decision rarely says what the query actually needs. An embedding may place a question near other questions, but it does not state whether the question calls for careful reasoning or for knowledge the model would have to bring in from outside. The routing decision rests on something that cannot be read.
SeLMRoute pulls that decision apart into three separate pieces. First comes semantic evidence about the query, extracted without reference to any particular candidate model. Second comes learning how each candidate is likely to perform. Third, and only at the end, come the deployment objectives, such as whether accuracy or cost matters more. Keeping the evidence independent of the candidates is the core move. The description of the query stays the same no matter which models are on offer.
The evidence comes from a decision model that works through a set of interpretable questions about the query. Examples the abstract gives are its reasoning requirements and whether it uses external knowledge. Each answer is kept as a probability distribution rather than collapsed into a yes or a no, and together those answers make up a probabilistic semantic state. A lightweight supervised router then reads that state and estimates how well each candidate model would perform. Routing objectives are applied only after that estimate, which means one semantic state can serve a decision aimed purely at performance, and equally a decision that weighs cost.
The main test is LLMRouterBench, which covers fifteen datasets, twenty candidate models and eleven thousand four hundred and eighty-one queries. There SeLMRoute averages seventy-two point zero eight percent accuracy, with a spread of zero point four five. Under grouped five-fold out-of-fold evaluation it reaches seventy-two point six four percent.
For comparison, the strongest single fixed candidate reaches sixty-nine point two three percent. Against other ways of representing the query, semantic, dense, lexical and domain-level, this representation gets the highest mean performance. A separate setting with thirteen models trades performance against cost, and here SeLMRoute improves performance in all five grouped splits, with a mean PerfGain of two point six six percent.
Separating what a query needs from which model to use, and from what the deployment cares about, gives a router whose input can be inspected question by question. On the benchmark reported, that legible input also ends up ahead of the dense and lexical alternatives, and ahead of any one model used alone. The code is released alongside the work.
Paper Quest · 7 chapters · about 40 min
Play this paper
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Chapter 1 🧩 · The problem
Twenty models, one query, and a router that cannot say why it chose.
You run a service with twenty language models on offer, and every incoming query has to go to one of them. Your router reads a query embedding and learns which model tends to win.
The road ahead
- 1 · The problem ~6 min A router that picks one model per query from an embedding can work well, yet it cannot say what the query actually needs.
- 2 · What came before ~3 min
- 3 · The key idea ~9 min Describe each query by a model's probabilistic answers to fixed readable questions, then learn model performance from that, and apply goals last.
- 4 · Choose your own research ~3 min
- 5 · Build the method ~8 min Four steps: question the query, keep probabilities, predict each candidate's performance with a light learner, then apply the routing objective.
- 6 · The experiment ~6 min You’ll guess: In a separate 13-model setting that trades performance against cost, what mean PerfGain did SeLMRoute reach across the grouped splits?
- 7 · The viva ~5 min Three questions from the examiners, answered in your own words. Win it for the paper’s trophy.
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