WhatWorkedBench: Benchmarking Experimental Understanding in AI Agents

Jingjie Ning, Xueqi Li, Yibo Kong, Dongting Li

Carnegie Mellon University · Tsinghua University

Published September 23, 2026 · on the feed September 24, 2026 · ▲ 10 · arXiv 2609.27490

The abstract

AI research agents need reliable knowledge of how their experiments change outcomes. We introduce WhatWorkedBench to measure experimental understanding, the accuracy of predictions about component changes after budgeted experimentation. Agents inspect code, select measurements, and submit a response surface, a table predicting scores for every configuration of component settings. Exhaustive CPU execution supplies reference effects for changing each component while holding the others fixed. These effects capture combinations of changes across 36 tasks from 30 data sources and 8 workflow types, with 1248 configuration records. Core evaluation combines 4,206 numerical-control records across all eight families and 108 agent episodes across the original six. At eight new measurements, pair-effect ridge selects an optimum on 15 of 22 sources and limits every effect error to 10% of score range on three. Fitting a Gaussian process (GP) to the same agent observations raises effect recovery, accuracy relative to true effect magnitude, from 0.632 to 0.698 in the original Flash cohort and from 0.621 to 0.720 in an additional cohort. On six completed beat-detection and graph submissions, the same-observation GP raises family-macro recovery from 0.303 to 0.455. On six workflows with six binary options at 20 new measurements, encoding code equivalences, configurations with identical behavior, raises GP recovery from 0.248 to 0.462. WhatWorkedBench supports research on experimental agents, adaptive experimental design, numerical inference, and use of program structure.

The Brief

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Transcript

WhatWorkedBench. Benchmarking Experimental Understanding in AI Agents. By Jingjie Ning and three others, from Carnegie Mellon University and Tsinghua University. Published on the twenty-third of September. Its code repository is worked out: about one hundred and fifty source files, with a readme and a licence.

AI research agents need reliable knowledge of how their experiments change outcomes. Running an experiment is one thing; knowing afterwards which change did what is another. WhatWorkedBench measures that second thing, under the name experimental understanding: how accurate an agent's predictions about component changes are, after a budget of experimentation.

The agent inspects code, selects measurements, and submits a response surface, which is a table predicting the score for every configuration of the component settings. The reference comes from exhaustive execution on CPU. It supplies the true effect of changing each component while holding the others fixed, and these effects capture combinations of changes. Because every configuration was actually run, the answer key is complete. An agent's table can be checked cell by cell against what really happens, not against another model's guess.

The benchmark covers thirty-six tasks, drawn from thirty data sources and eight workflow types. Together they hold one thousand two hundred forty-eight configuration records. The core evaluation combines four thousand two hundred six numerical-control records, spanning all eight families. Alongside those sit one hundred eight agent episodes, across the original six families. The numerical-control records give a baseline for how well effects can be inferred from limited measurements, and the agent episodes show how real agents do.

At eight new measurements, a pair-effect ridge method selects an optimum on fifteen of twenty-two sources, and on three of them it keeps every effect error within ten percent of the score range. Fitting a Gaussian process to the same agent observations raises effect recovery, meaning accuracy relative to the true effect magnitude. In the original Flash cohort it goes from zero point six three two to zero point six nine eight. In an additional cohort it goes from zero point six two one to zero point seven two.

On six completed submissions in beat detection and graphs, the same-observation process raises family-macro recovery from zero point three zero three to zero point four five five. On six workflows with six binary options and twenty new measurements, encoding code equivalences, meaning configurations with identical behavior, raises the process's recovery from zero point two four eight to zero point four six two. The pattern across these results is that the same observations can support better or worse conclusions depending on how they are analyzed, and telling the analysis which configurations are really the same helps it.

What the benchmark isolates is whether an agent knows why a result happened, not only that it happened. It is offered as ground for research on experimental agents, adaptive experimental design, numerical inference, and the use of program structure, the last of which the code-equivalence result speaks to directly.

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Chapter 1 🧩 · The problem

An agent found a good setting. Does it know why? That question is the wall here.

You are evaluating AI agents that run experiments on code: flip some options, measure a score. Most tests ask only whether the agent found a good setting in the end.

The road ahead

  1. 1 · The problem ~6 min An agent can land on a good setting without knowing which change did what, and most tests cannot tell the difference.
  2. 2 · What came before ~3 min
  3. 3 · The key idea ~8 min Ask the agent to predict every configuration's score, then grade the effects in that table against effects from actually running everything.
  4. 4 · Choose your own research ~3 min
  5. 5 · Build the method ~8 min The agent reads the code, buys a few measurements under a budget, submits a full predicted table, and is graded on effects.
  6. 6 · The experiment ~6 min You’ll guess: If a Gaussian process is fitted to exactly the observations a Flash agent bought, how does its effect recovery compare with the agent's own submitted table?
  7. 7 · The viva ~5 min Three questions from the examiners, answered in your own words. Win it for the paper’s trophy.
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